Patriots Over Under Wins 2018
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The NFL Divisional round is in the books, so For The Win’s Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz are back with another slate of NFL picks. All odds courtesy of Bovada…
Jan 22, 2018 When the 2017 NFL season began, the New England Patriots were +325 to win the Super Bowl, while the Philadelphia Eagles were +4,000. Super Bowl Odds 2018: Early Payout Breakdown and Over/Under. Jan 14, 2018 New England Patriots. Not only did the Patriots open the season as favorites to win the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season, but their preseason win total of 11 means they are the only franchise since 2016 to have a preseason win total of 11 or more, a feat which they have accomplished in each of the past two seasons (12.5 in 2017). Download the MyTeams app for the latest Patriots news and analysis. At the end of the day, it’s impossible to predict everything right in the NFL. But for now, here are a few teams that are the best bets for the over and few that are solid bets for the under on their win totals. All over/under totals are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 2018 NFL win totals: Oddsmakers expect 49ers, Packers to take step forward. Under 8½ Wins -130: Patriots: Over 10½ Wins -145: Under 10½ Wins +125: Raiders: Over 8½ Wins -160: Under 8½. Over/under: New England Patriots: 11 wins: New Orleans Saints: 10 1/2 wins: Los Angeles Rams: 10 1/2 wins. Based on 2018 records, the Browns also have the 10th most favorable schedule in the.RECAP (INCLUDING OVER/UNDER PICKS)
Steven: 3-5 (120-117-11, postseason: 7-9)
Charles: 3-5 (104-127-11, postseason: 7-9)
Steven: Underdogs have dominated in these playoffs, and — SPOILER ALERT! — I think that trend continues.
Charles: Betting against Nick Foles and Blake Bortles turned out to be the wrong call. What a crazy weekend!Jaguars at Patriots (-9) (O/U: 46)
Steven: I understand not wanting to bet on Blake Bortles going up against a Bill Belichick team. It’s almost blasphemous to do so. But, I’m going to make an exception here because Jacksonville is a terrible matchup for New England. That defense is going to give Tom Brady problems, and Leonard Fournette should have a big day whether the Patriots load up the box or not. New England wins a close one. I’ll say 23-17.
Charles: If the Jags can put up 45 points — 45 POINTS — against the Steelers, who have a better defense than the Patriots, then can they repeat that again? The X-factor here, naturally, is Bill Belichick. He’ll find a way to keep Leonard Fournette relatively grounded and to force Bortles into throwing a ton. It’s the flip side that should have Belichick concerned: Can his team’s offense find a way against the stout Jacksonville secondary? Ultimately, I think the Pats emerge with a win, but I suspect it’s closer than nine, something like a 24-20 victory, which means I’ll take the under as well.Vikings at Eagles (+3.5) (O/U: 39)
Steven: Let’s get this out of the way: I’m hitting the under hard. Both of these defenses are equipped to take out the opposing offense. As for the pick, I still think we’re selling the Eagles short here. I picked them last week based on that defensive line and I’ll take them again this week. Philly not only covers but wins straight-up in a 10-9 slugfest.
Charles: Ugh, Vegas delivered the perfect spread here. Bookmakers just dared you to back Nick Foles and bet against the Vikings’ stifling defense completely dismantling the Eagles’ offense. They’re also wondering if you can stomach the Vikes winning by more than a field goal with Case Keenum on the road facing Philly’s uber-tough pass rush. After going back and forth a bunch, I landed on the simplest explanation: The Vikings defense keeps Jay Ajayi from breaking out and the secondary picks off Foles three times. Minnesota 21, Philadelphia 10.
With the NFL down to its final four, 28 of the league’s 32 teams are already thinking about next season. That also means 28 of the league’s 32 fan bases are focusing on the offseason to come and what to expect from their team in 2018.
Of course, it’s too early to have a strong sense about what each team’s roster construction will look like. We don’t know who will retire, where players will end up in free agency or who will end up drafting who when. All of that is true, but it doesn’t make guessing or projecting any less fun.
So let’s do that. I’m going to run through each team and project what I think their over/under will be in Las Vegas for the 2018 season. To do this, I’m using their performance from the 2017 season (and years past), applying whatever I learned from living in Las Vegas for a year and talking to bookmakers during my time at Grantland and making various assumptions about what each team will do during the offseason. These aren’t the numbers I would project for each organization in 2018, but instead my guess as to what the actual lines might be come April.
For the uninitiated, an over/under bet on a team’s win total is a bet on whether a team will finish with more wins than the listed total. The Patriots, for example, were posted with a 12.5-win total in 2017. An over bet would have required them to win 13 games, which they successfully accomplished. An under bet would have won if the Patriots had won 12 or fewer games.
Games that end in a tie count as losses.
If a team matches its over/under (as the Titans did by going 9-7 with a nine-win over/under), the bettor is returned whatever he/she bet without any profit or loss.
The typical bet is -110, meaning bettors need to bet $110 on either side of the over/under to win $100. That will be the default line for the bets listed below, but a few bets will have juice weighted toward one side of the line or the other. The 2017 Patriots, for example, were listed as even money over 12.5 wins and -120 on the under. That means a $120 bet on the over would have paid $120, while a $120 bet on the under would only have paid $100 if it won.
Let’s get to the teams, in order from lowest projected over/under to highest. You won’t be surprised with where we start or end.Patriots Over Under Wins 2018 Nfl
Click on the links below to go directly to your team.ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WASCleveland Browns
Projected 2018 over/under: 4.5 wins (Under -130, Over +110)
The Browns’ total for 2017 was 4.5 wins, and you know how that one went. Why would they go up again at 4.5 wins for 2018, then? Sheer regression toward the mean. Most teams as bad as the Browns -- although clearly not all -- bounce back some after seasons as bad as the one we saw from Cleveland in 2017. The Browns will almost surely make an upgrade at quarterback this offseason, including the possibility of acquiring a veteran and drafting a passer with the first overall pick. I suspect this one would still probably require some juice on the under.New York Jets
Projected 2018 over/under: 5 wins
As bad as the Browns were, they weren’t the team that headed into 2017 with the lowest expected over/under total. The Jets eventually fell all the way to a 3.5-win expectation, and while they made it to four wins by Week 9, Todd Bowles’ team won just one of its final seven games as the schedule stiffened. Gang Green exceeded expectations, but their quarterback situation still consists of Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, whose existence the Jets actively disavow. Unless the Jets make a major upgrade under center, they’re still going to have one of the league’s worst projections.Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2018 over/under: 5.5 wins
A bet on the Colts is a bet for or against Andrew Luck, who seems no nearer a return than he did at this time last year. If the rumors are true and Indy brings in Josh McDaniels, they’ll be gaining a coach with a brilliant offensive mind; but years of bad drafts have left the Colts a ways away from competing in a suddenly difficult AFC South. Concrete news on Luck would shift this line by a win in either direction.New York Giants
Projected 2018 over/under: 6 wins
The most popular organizations in the league -- teams such as the Cowboys, Giants and Steelers -- often will have inflated totals in Vegas because the books know that their fans are more likely to bet the over. If the Giants had the same talent but wore the Bills’ uniforms, they would hit the board at 5.5 wins. Big Blue only posted 4.1 Pythagorean wins this past season, and while they probably won’t suffer as many injuries as they did during a snakebit 2017 campaign, it’s unclear who will actually be playing quarterback in 2018. If new general manager Dave Gettleman uses the second overall pick on a passer, the Giants will probably be using 2018 to rebuild and retool.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins
The Bucs underachieved in 2017, in part because they went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including four such losses to playoff teams. Numbers suggest the Bucs should improve, but it’s difficult to see a high ceiling for Tampa Bay when it is bringing back frustrating coach Dirk Koetter and is still stuck in a division with three stacked teams in Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. A healthy season from Jameis Winston -- who posted the league’s seventh-best passer rating after returning from injury in Week 13 -- would help.Chicago Bears
Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
The Bears will be a sleeper pick in plenty of places, and indeed, people who didn’t catch onto the 2017 Rams until it was too late will look at Chicago as the team most similarly constructed to Los Angeles. It could very easily work out that way, but it would be aggressive to look at Jared Goff, a quarterback who was a mess in Year 1 and a franchise quarterback in Year 2, and assume Mitchell Trubisky will make the same sort of drastic strides forward in his sophomore campaign. Most teams that go 0-6 in their division improve the following season, but the Bears will still be up against the NFC North. This one would go up with juice on the over.Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
It’s almost impossible to project the Cardinals, given that they don’t have a head coach or an obvious choice at quarterback. If general manager Steve Keim opts to go for a veteran and trades for Alex Smith, this number will be higher, even if the Cardinals performed far worse than their 8-8 record this past season. And likewise, if Arizona settles for a stopgap such as Josh McCown and drafts a quarterback 15th overall, this number might fall below six in a division that already has three franchise quarterbacks.Denver Broncos
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
Everyone suspects the Broncos are going to make an addition at quarterback, but it’s not yet clear whether their decision will dramatically move the needle. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t declined as much as the raw totals suggest; it fell from fourth to 22nd in points allowed but was still the 10th-best defense by DVOA after leading the league in 2016. But Denver could cut Aqib Talib. And it is feeling the effects of what look to be middling drafts in 2015 and 2016.Miami Dolphins
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
You suspect the Dolphins might want to chalk up 2017 as a lost season after Ryan Tannehill went down with a torn ACL in preseason, but their 28th-ranked defense (by DVOA) is a bigger concern. Miami likely will hit the free-agent market yet again to try to plug holes, even if it means moving on from Jarvis Landry and cutting Ndamukong Suh, who might have worn out his welcome. Questionable contracts from years past might prevent Miami from importing as much new talent as it might like.Washington
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
Arguably the most injury-hit team in football, Jay Gruden’s team will hope to get more games -- if not full seasons -- out of impact contributors such as Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed and Trent Williams in 2018. Prop bet live results. Of course, Washington might be coming back with a totally different team, given that it could move on from Kirk Cousins and cut cornerback Josh Norman, which would slice its most expensive offensive and defensive players off the roster. This total assumes both players stay while Washington allows Bashaud Breeland and Zach Brown to leave in free agency, but much is up in the air.Buffalo Bills
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
While the Bills shocked the world and made it to the playoffs at 9-7, their Pythagorean expectation was for a 6.4-win team, suggesting they’re extremely likely to decline in 2018. If they decide to turn the quarterback position over to Nathan Peterman, seven wins might be a tall order. My best guess is that the Bills will use their two first-round picks to trade up and grab a passer; but unless the incoming signal-caller plays like a superstar and props up the rest of the team, Sean McDermott’s squad might take a step backward before it takes a step forward.Cincinnati Bengals
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins
Cincinnati’s motto for 2018 might as well be ’Run It Back,’ given that it re-signed coach Marvin Lewis and will return most of its starters from 2017. Most teams would look at how badly they got their offensive line choices wrong and go into free agency to try to invest in replacements. But with the Bengals treating the market as if it were lava, Cincinnati is going to have to hope for a healthier season and further development from would-be contributors such as Cedric Ogbuehi and John Ross.Oakland Raiders
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -140, Under +120)
The second-most difficult number on this board was Oakland. Do you believe in Jon Gruden and a talented core that went 12-4 as recently as 2016? Or do you see a Raiders team that went 6-10 with the Pythagorean expectation of a 6.0-win team last season and one that hasn’t topped 8.7 expected wins under Derek Carr’s stewardship? I’d put heavy juice on the over, because it’s hardly out of the question that Gruden turns the offense around quickly, but defensive struggles might hold back the Raiders in a difficult AFC West.San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
And this was the toughest number to peg, if only because the Niners looked like a totally different animal while going 5-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan’s team isn’t going to go undefeated in 2018 with its new quarterback, but the 49ers are going to return Jimmy GQ and a defense with as many as six first-round picks. And they should have something in the range of $100 million to work with in free agency. They could get good in a hurry. San Francisco also is in a tough division, and the NFC West has to face off against the NFC North and AFC West next year. The Niners’ road schedule includes six teams that were .500 or better this past season, along with a game at Lambeau Field against the Packers.Tennessee Titans
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins
The Titans won a playoff game and still managed to fire Mike Mularkey, which might have been the best possible outcome for Tennessee fans. It’s possible that Marcus Mariota takes a leap forward underneath a new offensive coordinator, but the Titans were 18th in DVOA and had the Pythagorean expectation of a 7.5-win team this past season. With the Colts likely getting back Andrew Luck and the Texans expecting longer campaigns from Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt, the Titans might get squeezed by their division.Detroit Lions
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins
The Lions were actually a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016, according to both point differential and DVOA, but their record suffered by virtue of falling from 8-5 in one-score games to 3-4, which brought an end to Jim Caldwell’s time as coach. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is expected to take over, but will the Lions ever develop a running game or a secondary pass rush behind franchise-tag candidate Ezekiel Ansah? Detroit also has to face a second-place schedule in the NFC, which means games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Seahawks.Houston Texans
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins
Nobody doubts how brilliant Deshaun Watson played during his six-game stint as Houston’s starter last season, but the Texans were also 3-3 in those games. Granted, their losses over that stretch were to the Chiefs, Patriots and Seahawks by a combined 14 points, but it’s fair to point out that they might not become a Super Bowl contender solely by virtue of getting back Watson. They are certainly likely to improve, though, and while J.J. Watt is hardly guaranteed to return to his previous form after missing 24 of the past 32 games thanks to injury, if he does come back as his old self that defense will be scary.Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
The league’s most perennially frustrating team did just enough to get into playoff contention, only for the Bills to keep the Chargers from the postseason with a win in Week 17. Los Angeles’s biggest problem -- kicker -- is fixable this offseason, but this might be the best version of the Chargers we’ll see for a while. Outside of Denzel Perryman and Jason Verrett, virtually every one of Los Angeles’ core talents stayed healthy this past season. Philip Rivers also posted the lowest interception rate of his career, a trick that isn’t likely to stick around in 2017.Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2018 over/under: 8.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
New England’s opponent in the AFC Championship Game could hit the board with a higher total if it upgrades at quarterback. This line assumes the Jaguars come back with Blake Bortles for 2018 on his fifth-year option. Jacksonville’s defense should still be legit in 2018, but it can’t be as healthy as it was this season, when the Jags’ 11 starters missed a combined three games. The returns of Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson also make the AFC South a much tougher proposition, given that the Jags went 4-0 against the Colts and Texans while outscoring them 131-24 this season.Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins
The Falcons brought back virtually their entire personnel core, but they didn’t get remotely similar results with a revamped staff of assistants; after outscoring teams by 8.4 points per game in 2016, they only topped their opposition by an average of 2.4 points in 2017. They only hit 10 wins by virtue of a pair of breathless last-second victories in September, including a drop in the end zone by the Bears in Week 1 and the Golden Tate 10-second runoff play in Week 3. Atlanta’s ninth-ranked offense by DVOA was unfairly blamed for the struggles of a defense that finished 22nd, so if the offense does play as poorly in 2018 as people perceived it to perform in 2017, things could get worse.Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins
Nine wins weren’t enough to get the 2017 Ravens into the playoffs, with a 1-4 record in games decided by seven points or less keeping out th
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The NFL Divisional round is in the books, so For The Win’s Charles Curtis and Steven Ruiz are back with another slate of NFL picks. All odds courtesy of Bovada…
Jan 22, 2018 When the 2017 NFL season began, the New England Patriots were +325 to win the Super Bowl, while the Philadelphia Eagles were +4,000. Super Bowl Odds 2018: Early Payout Breakdown and Over/Under. Jan 14, 2018 New England Patriots. Not only did the Patriots open the season as favorites to win the Super Bowl for the third consecutive season, but their preseason win total of 11 means they are the only franchise since 2016 to have a preseason win total of 11 or more, a feat which they have accomplished in each of the past two seasons (12.5 in 2017). Download the MyTeams app for the latest Patriots news and analysis. At the end of the day, it’s impossible to predict everything right in the NFL. But for now, here are a few teams that are the best bets for the over and few that are solid bets for the under on their win totals. All over/under totals are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 2018 NFL win totals: Oddsmakers expect 49ers, Packers to take step forward. Under 8½ Wins -130: Patriots: Over 10½ Wins -145: Under 10½ Wins +125: Raiders: Over 8½ Wins -160: Under 8½. Over/under: New England Patriots: 11 wins: New Orleans Saints: 10 1/2 wins: Los Angeles Rams: 10 1/2 wins. Based on 2018 records, the Browns also have the 10th most favorable schedule in the.RECAP (INCLUDING OVER/UNDER PICKS)
Steven: 3-5 (120-117-11, postseason: 7-9)
Charles: 3-5 (104-127-11, postseason: 7-9)
Steven: Underdogs have dominated in these playoffs, and — SPOILER ALERT! — I think that trend continues.
Charles: Betting against Nick Foles and Blake Bortles turned out to be the wrong call. What a crazy weekend!Jaguars at Patriots (-9) (O/U: 46)
Steven: I understand not wanting to bet on Blake Bortles going up against a Bill Belichick team. It’s almost blasphemous to do so. But, I’m going to make an exception here because Jacksonville is a terrible matchup for New England. That defense is going to give Tom Brady problems, and Leonard Fournette should have a big day whether the Patriots load up the box or not. New England wins a close one. I’ll say 23-17.
Charles: If the Jags can put up 45 points — 45 POINTS — against the Steelers, who have a better defense than the Patriots, then can they repeat that again? The X-factor here, naturally, is Bill Belichick. He’ll find a way to keep Leonard Fournette relatively grounded and to force Bortles into throwing a ton. It’s the flip side that should have Belichick concerned: Can his team’s offense find a way against the stout Jacksonville secondary? Ultimately, I think the Pats emerge with a win, but I suspect it’s closer than nine, something like a 24-20 victory, which means I’ll take the under as well.Vikings at Eagles (+3.5) (O/U: 39)
Steven: Let’s get this out of the way: I’m hitting the under hard. Both of these defenses are equipped to take out the opposing offense. As for the pick, I still think we’re selling the Eagles short here. I picked them last week based on that defensive line and I’ll take them again this week. Philly not only covers but wins straight-up in a 10-9 slugfest.
Charles: Ugh, Vegas delivered the perfect spread here. Bookmakers just dared you to back Nick Foles and bet against the Vikings’ stifling defense completely dismantling the Eagles’ offense. They’re also wondering if you can stomach the Vikes winning by more than a field goal with Case Keenum on the road facing Philly’s uber-tough pass rush. After going back and forth a bunch, I landed on the simplest explanation: The Vikings defense keeps Jay Ajayi from breaking out and the secondary picks off Foles three times. Minnesota 21, Philadelphia 10.
With the NFL down to its final four, 28 of the league’s 32 teams are already thinking about next season. That also means 28 of the league’s 32 fan bases are focusing on the offseason to come and what to expect from their team in 2018.
Of course, it’s too early to have a strong sense about what each team’s roster construction will look like. We don’t know who will retire, where players will end up in free agency or who will end up drafting who when. All of that is true, but it doesn’t make guessing or projecting any less fun.
So let’s do that. I’m going to run through each team and project what I think their over/under will be in Las Vegas for the 2018 season. To do this, I’m using their performance from the 2017 season (and years past), applying whatever I learned from living in Las Vegas for a year and talking to bookmakers during my time at Grantland and making various assumptions about what each team will do during the offseason. These aren’t the numbers I would project for each organization in 2018, but instead my guess as to what the actual lines might be come April.
For the uninitiated, an over/under bet on a team’s win total is a bet on whether a team will finish with more wins than the listed total. The Patriots, for example, were posted with a 12.5-win total in 2017. An over bet would have required them to win 13 games, which they successfully accomplished. An under bet would have won if the Patriots had won 12 or fewer games.
Games that end in a tie count as losses.
If a team matches its over/under (as the Titans did by going 9-7 with a nine-win over/under), the bettor is returned whatever he/she bet without any profit or loss.
The typical bet is -110, meaning bettors need to bet $110 on either side of the over/under to win $100. That will be the default line for the bets listed below, but a few bets will have juice weighted toward one side of the line or the other. The 2017 Patriots, for example, were listed as even money over 12.5 wins and -120 on the under. That means a $120 bet on the over would have paid $120, while a $120 bet on the under would only have paid $100 if it won.
Let’s get to the teams, in order from lowest projected over/under to highest. You won’t be surprised with where we start or end.Patriots Over Under Wins 2018 Nfl
Click on the links below to go directly to your team.ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAC | KC | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WASCleveland Browns
Projected 2018 over/under: 4.5 wins (Under -130, Over +110)
The Browns’ total for 2017 was 4.5 wins, and you know how that one went. Why would they go up again at 4.5 wins for 2018, then? Sheer regression toward the mean. Most teams as bad as the Browns -- although clearly not all -- bounce back some after seasons as bad as the one we saw from Cleveland in 2017. The Browns will almost surely make an upgrade at quarterback this offseason, including the possibility of acquiring a veteran and drafting a passer with the first overall pick. I suspect this one would still probably require some juice on the under.New York Jets
Projected 2018 over/under: 5 wins
As bad as the Browns were, they weren’t the team that headed into 2017 with the lowest expected over/under total. The Jets eventually fell all the way to a 3.5-win expectation, and while they made it to four wins by Week 9, Todd Bowles’ team won just one of its final seven games as the schedule stiffened. Gang Green exceeded expectations, but their quarterback situation still consists of Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg, whose existence the Jets actively disavow. Unless the Jets make a major upgrade under center, they’re still going to have one of the league’s worst projections.Indianapolis Colts
Projected 2018 over/under: 5.5 wins
A bet on the Colts is a bet for or against Andrew Luck, who seems no nearer a return than he did at this time last year. If the rumors are true and Indy brings in Josh McDaniels, they’ll be gaining a coach with a brilliant offensive mind; but years of bad drafts have left the Colts a ways away from competing in a suddenly difficult AFC South. Concrete news on Luck would shift this line by a win in either direction.New York Giants
Projected 2018 over/under: 6 wins
The most popular organizations in the league -- teams such as the Cowboys, Giants and Steelers -- often will have inflated totals in Vegas because the books know that their fans are more likely to bet the over. If the Giants had the same talent but wore the Bills’ uniforms, they would hit the board at 5.5 wins. Big Blue only posted 4.1 Pythagorean wins this past season, and while they probably won’t suffer as many injuries as they did during a snakebit 2017 campaign, it’s unclear who will actually be playing quarterback in 2018. If new general manager Dave Gettleman uses the second overall pick on a passer, the Giants will probably be using 2018 to rebuild and retool.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins
The Bucs underachieved in 2017, in part because they went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including four such losses to playoff teams. Numbers suggest the Bucs should improve, but it’s difficult to see a high ceiling for Tampa Bay when it is bringing back frustrating coach Dirk Koetter and is still stuck in a division with three stacked teams in Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. A healthy season from Jameis Winston -- who posted the league’s seventh-best passer rating after returning from injury in Week 13 -- would help.Chicago Bears
Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
The Bears will be a sleeper pick in plenty of places, and indeed, people who didn’t catch onto the 2017 Rams until it was too late will look at Chicago as the team most similarly constructed to Los Angeles. It could very easily work out that way, but it would be aggressive to look at Jared Goff, a quarterback who was a mess in Year 1 and a franchise quarterback in Year 2, and assume Mitchell Trubisky will make the same sort of drastic strides forward in his sophomore campaign. Most teams that go 0-6 in their division improve the following season, but the Bears will still be up against the NFC North. This one would go up with juice on the over.Arizona Cardinals
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
It’s almost impossible to project the Cardinals, given that they don’t have a head coach or an obvious choice at quarterback. If general manager Steve Keim opts to go for a veteran and trades for Alex Smith, this number will be higher, even if the Cardinals performed far worse than their 8-8 record this past season. And likewise, if Arizona settles for a stopgap such as Josh McCown and drafts a quarterback 15th overall, this number might fall below six in a division that already has three franchise quarterbacks.Denver Broncos
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
Everyone suspects the Broncos are going to make an addition at quarterback, but it’s not yet clear whether their decision will dramatically move the needle. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t declined as much as the raw totals suggest; it fell from fourth to 22nd in points allowed but was still the 10th-best defense by DVOA after leading the league in 2016. But Denver could cut Aqib Talib. And it is feeling the effects of what look to be middling drafts in 2015 and 2016.Miami Dolphins
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
You suspect the Dolphins might want to chalk up 2017 as a lost season after Ryan Tannehill went down with a torn ACL in preseason, but their 28th-ranked defense (by DVOA) is a bigger concern. Miami likely will hit the free-agent market yet again to try to plug holes, even if it means moving on from Jarvis Landry and cutting Ndamukong Suh, who might have worn out his welcome. Questionable contracts from years past might prevent Miami from importing as much new talent as it might like.Washington
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
Arguably the most injury-hit team in football, Jay Gruden’s team will hope to get more games -- if not full seasons -- out of impact contributors such as Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed and Trent Williams in 2018. Prop bet live results. Of course, Washington might be coming back with a totally different team, given that it could move on from Kirk Cousins and cut cornerback Josh Norman, which would slice its most expensive offensive and defensive players off the roster. This total assumes both players stay while Washington allows Bashaud Breeland and Zach Brown to leave in free agency, but much is up in the air.Buffalo Bills
Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins
While the Bills shocked the world and made it to the playoffs at 9-7, their Pythagorean expectation was for a 6.4-win team, suggesting they’re extremely likely to decline in 2018. If they decide to turn the quarterback position over to Nathan Peterman, seven wins might be a tall order. My best guess is that the Bills will use their two first-round picks to trade up and grab a passer; but unless the incoming signal-caller plays like a superstar and props up the rest of the team, Sean McDermott’s squad might take a step backward before it takes a step forward.Cincinnati Bengals
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins
Cincinnati’s motto for 2018 might as well be ’Run It Back,’ given that it re-signed coach Marvin Lewis and will return most of its starters from 2017. Most teams would look at how badly they got their offensive line choices wrong and go into free agency to try to invest in replacements. But with the Bengals treating the market as if it were lava, Cincinnati is going to have to hope for a healthier season and further development from would-be contributors such as Cedric Ogbuehi and John Ross.Oakland Raiders
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -140, Under +120)
The second-most difficult number on this board was Oakland. Do you believe in Jon Gruden and a talented core that went 12-4 as recently as 2016? Or do you see a Raiders team that went 6-10 with the Pythagorean expectation of a 6.0-win team last season and one that hasn’t topped 8.7 expected wins under Derek Carr’s stewardship? I’d put heavy juice on the over, because it’s hardly out of the question that Gruden turns the offense around quickly, but defensive struggles might hold back the Raiders in a difficult AFC West.San Francisco 49ers
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
And this was the toughest number to peg, if only because the Niners looked like a totally different animal while going 5-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan’s team isn’t going to go undefeated in 2018 with its new quarterback, but the 49ers are going to return Jimmy GQ and a defense with as many as six first-round picks. And they should have something in the range of $100 million to work with in free agency. They could get good in a hurry. San Francisco also is in a tough division, and the NFC West has to face off against the NFC North and AFC West next year. The Niners’ road schedule includes six teams that were .500 or better this past season, along with a game at Lambeau Field against the Packers.Tennessee Titans
Projected 2018 over/under: 7.5 wins
The Titans won a playoff game and still managed to fire Mike Mularkey, which might have been the best possible outcome for Tennessee fans. It’s possible that Marcus Mariota takes a leap forward underneath a new offensive coordinator, but the Titans were 18th in DVOA and had the Pythagorean expectation of a 7.5-win team this past season. With the Colts likely getting back Andrew Luck and the Texans expecting longer campaigns from Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt, the Titans might get squeezed by their division.Detroit Lions
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins
The Lions were actually a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016, according to both point differential and DVOA, but their record suffered by virtue of falling from 8-5 in one-score games to 3-4, which brought an end to Jim Caldwell’s time as coach. Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is expected to take over, but will the Lions ever develop a running game or a secondary pass rush behind franchise-tag candidate Ezekiel Ansah? Detroit also has to face a second-place schedule in the NFC, which means games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Seahawks.Houston Texans
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins
Nobody doubts how brilliant Deshaun Watson played during his six-game stint as Houston’s starter last season, but the Texans were also 3-3 in those games. Granted, their losses over that stretch were to the Chiefs, Patriots and Seahawks by a combined 14 points, but it’s fair to point out that they might not become a Super Bowl contender solely by virtue of getting back Watson. They are certainly likely to improve, though, and while J.J. Watt is hardly guaranteed to return to his previous form after missing 24 of the past 32 games thanks to injury, if he does come back as his old self that defense will be scary.Los Angeles Chargers
Projected 2018 over/under: 8 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
The league’s most perennially frustrating team did just enough to get into playoff contention, only for the Bills to keep the Chargers from the postseason with a win in Week 17. Los Angeles’s biggest problem -- kicker -- is fixable this offseason, but this might be the best version of the Chargers we’ll see for a while. Outside of Denzel Perryman and Jason Verrett, virtually every one of Los Angeles’ core talents stayed healthy this past season. Philip Rivers also posted the lowest interception rate of his career, a trick that isn’t likely to stick around in 2017.Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected 2018 over/under: 8.5 wins (Over -130, Under +110)
New England’s opponent in the AFC Championship Game could hit the board with a higher total if it upgrades at quarterback. This line assumes the Jaguars come back with Blake Bortles for 2018 on his fifth-year option. Jacksonville’s defense should still be legit in 2018, but it can’t be as healthy as it was this season, when the Jags’ 11 starters missed a combined three games. The returns of Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson also make the AFC South a much tougher proposition, given that the Jags went 4-0 against the Colts and Texans while outscoring them 131-24 this season.Atlanta Falcons
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins
The Falcons brought back virtually their entire personnel core, but they didn’t get remotely similar results with a revamped staff of assistants; after outscoring teams by 8.4 points per game in 2016, they only topped their opposition by an average of 2.4 points in 2017. They only hit 10 wins by virtue of a pair of breathless last-second victories in September, including a drop in the end zone by the Bears in Week 1 and the Golden Tate 10-second runoff play in Week 3. Atlanta’s ninth-ranked offense by DVOA was unfairly blamed for the struggles of a defense that finished 22nd, so if the offense does play as poorly in 2018 as people perceived it to perform in 2017, things could get worse.Baltimore Ravens
Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins
Nine wins weren’t enough to get the 2017 Ravens into the playoffs, with a 1-4 record in games decided by seven points or less keeping out th
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